The All Progressives Congress (APC) publicity secretary in Benue State, Mr Benedict Yawe, says all paperwork required for the party’s campaigns and electoral victory is complete.
Yawe has also dismissed suggestions that the plethora of court cases arising from alleged substitution of candidates is responsible for the governing party’s seemingly slow start to its 2027 campaign.
But beyond the official explanation, Benue appears to be grappling with palpable uncertainty as political parties approach the 2027 general election. In a politically active state where electioneering traditionally begins early, the relative quietness has left many asking a simple question: What is going on?
A partnership that lost its partners
The uncertainty can be traced, in part, to the strategic political partnership initiated by former Governor Samuel Ortom.
The initiative sought to bring together aggrieved members of the APC and members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in a coalition aimed at removing Fr. Hyacinth Alia from office as governor.
But the coalition appeared to lose steam when the sale of expression-of-interest and nomination forms began. Several of its principal actors subsequently emerged as candidates of different political parties.
Prof. Terhemba Shija is flying the National Democratic Congress (NDC) governorship ticket; Herman Hembe is the ADC candidate; Prof. Sebastine Hon is contesting on the platform of the SDP, while Engr. Ben Akaaka is the APGA candidate.
That development has inevitably raised questions about the durability and purpose of the original partnership.
One of the factors said to have weakened the arrangement is the emergence of the PDP governorship candidate from Kwande, a political bloc that some stakeholders regard as being outside the established zoning pattern.
Under the informal zoning arrangement that has shaped governorship contests in Benue, the Jechira axis, from which the incumbent governor hails, is regarded by some political actors as having the first claim to the Makurdi Government House job beyond 2027.
With Fr. Alia already nominated by the APC, the argument goes, other parties could reasonably be expected to consider candidates from the same political bloc in the spirit of political reciprocity.
There are precedents often cited in support of this argument.
In 2011, incumbent Governor Gabriel Suswam of the PDP contested against his Logo kinsman, Prof. Steve Ugbah of the ACN. In 2019, Governor Samuel Ortom of the PDP faced his Lobi kinsman, Barrister Emmanuel Jime of the APC.
Ortom himself benefited from this political pattern. Critics therefore argue that he cannot now be seen to be working against the same principle.
The APC’s pre-election battle
While some of the former partners are busy campaigning under different platforms, another major issue is playing out within the APC itself.
The party is facing pre-election litigation over allegations that some aspirants declared winners of its National Assembly primaries were subsequently substituted.
The controversy particularly affects the Senate and House of Representatives contests.
At the heart of the disagreement is a reported clash of interests between the camp of Senator George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), which is said to favour automatic tickets for some incumbent lawmakers seeking re-election, and Fr. Alia’s position that party members who elected candidates at the primaries should have a decisive say in determining who flies the party’s flag.
Following the controversy, some aspirants who were declared winners of the APC National Assembly primaries but are not incumbents have gone to court, challenging alleged substitutions and asking the courts to restore what they regard as their mandates.
The litigation has consequently become an important variable in the 2027 equation.
The Omehia-Amaechi lesson
The argument that the legal battles could affect the pace of campaigning is not without precedent.
The Celestine Omehia-Rotimi Amaechi episode in Rivers State remains one of Nigeria’s most instructive cases of how a disputed party ticket can alter the course of an election long after campaigns have ended.
In 2007, Amaechi won the PDP governorship primary in Rivers State, but the party substituted his name with that of Omehia. Amaechi challenged the decision in court.
The case eventually reached the Supreme Court, which in October 2007 declared Amaechi the rightful PDP candidate and winner of the April 2007 governorship election.
The remarkable aspect of the episode was that Amaechi did not run a conventional campaign. His principal battle was fought in the courtroom.
He did not spend months touring the state seeking votes. Instead, he pursued what he believed was his mandate through the legal process and eventually prevailed.
That history is now being recalled in relation to the APC disputes in Benue.
Supporters of the affected aspirants argue that those declared winners at the primaries should not be displaced through substitution. To them, any candidate eventually presented in their place amounts to an APC version of an “Omehia” — someone occupying a ticket they believe belongs to another person.
A defective partnership?
The collapse, or at least fragmentation, of the Ortom-led strategic partnership has created another layer of uncertainty.
Ortom has also faced criticism over what his opponents describe as contradictory political positions after expressing support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 re-election while also backing the presidential ambition of NDC chieftain Peter Obi.
The former governor’s party has, meanwhile, fielded candidates for the various elective positions, prompting questions about how far the original strategic partnership remains operational.
The questions are straightforward: Whose interest is the partnership ultimately designed to serve? Is it a platform for the partners collectively, or primarily an instrument for advancing Ortom’s political interests?
And if the various partners have become candidates of different political parties, will Ortom eventually abandon his party’s candidates and campaign for them in the name of the original partnership?
These unresolved questions are adding to the political fog.
Who determines 2027?
For now, the major rallying point appears to be President Tinubu, although the eventual direction of the contest may depend significantly on Fr. Alia’s own positioning on 2027 and the outcome of the various court cases.
The slogan of “election according to election” became prominent during the build-up to the 2023 general election. Ortom openly backed Peter Obi, then the Labour Party presidential candidate, as his preferred Christian alternative to the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Obi remains a major factor in the 2027 political conversation. Political actors are still shouting “election according to the election” as 2027 beckons.
Fr. Alia has consistently maintained that electoral victory ultimately belongs to the electorate. Anyone seeking to lead must go before the people and ask for their votes.
The general election is now only months away. Campaigns have commenced, at least formally, but Benue’s political atmosphere remains unusually uncertain.
Between courtrooms and campaign grounds, between fractured alliances and competing political interests, the road to 2027 is already producing its own drama.
Who wins? That, ultimately, will be decided by the voters — and by time.
